World Cup 2026
How the tournament ended, what the SolvX model predicted before each kickoff, and how it held up against the market.
Spain
ESP1-0ARG
a.e.t.- 1Spain
- 2Argentina
- 3
Englandbeat France 6-4 - 4
France
- SpainOurs 22%Polymarket 16%
- ArgentinaOurs 20%Polymarket 8%
Together we gave the two finalists 42%; Polymarket gave them 24%. They were our top two, while Polymarket had Argentina fifth.
The chance to lift the trophy, on the opening day.
Our best calls
What our model got right, built only from what was known at the time, and every claim checked against the data.
Spain, our pick before the first match
On the opening day our model made Spain favourites at 22%; Polymarket had them at 16%. Spain lifted the trophy.
We never made France favourites
Polymarket backed France as favourites for 29 days. Our model never did, and France went out in the semi-final against Spain.
Both finalists, in our top three every day
Spain and Argentina sat in our top three on every day of the tournament.
Our top two before the semis met in the final
Before the semi-finals our model's two favourites were Argentina (36%) and Spain (31%). Polymarket led with France (39%).
USA v Belgium: we backed Belgium
Our call, saved before kickoff, gave Belgium a 70% chance to go through. The bookmakers and the Kalshi exchange both backed the USA. Belgium won 4-1.
England v Argentina: we backed Argentina
Our model, rerun with the ratings at kickoff, favoured Argentina; the Polymarket exchange narrowly favoured England. Argentina won 2-1.
Scorecard
How our calls held up against the market's, over all 104 matches.
How often each side's favourite (home win, draw or away win) was the result after 90 minutes.
The market's favourite won one match more than ours.
How far each call's probabilities were from what happened, from 0 (certain and right) to 2 (certain and wrong). Lower is better.
The market's probabilities were closer to what happened.
Ties where the side's more likely team went through, after extra time and penalties.
We called one tie more than the market.
The 13 matches where we and the market picked different favourites, and whose pick was the result.
The market won this head-to-head.
All 104 matches count. The market is the bookmaker average saved before kickoff, and in knockout ties its chance to go through is the Kalshi exchange’s price. For the last 4 (the semi-finals, the third-place match and the final) no call was saved before kickoff: the market is the Polymarket exchange’s closing price, and ours is the same model rerun with the ratings at kickoff.
Title odds through the tournament
Each team's chance of lifting the trophy, day by day, for the four semi-finalists: our model against the market.
Calibration
Every chance each side gave a home win, a draw or an away win, grouped in tenths: what it said, against how often that outcome happened. On the diagonal, a 30% call comes true 30% of the time.
Our blind spot: draws
How likely each side said a draw was, on average, against how often matches were level after 90 minutes.
Our model’s draw chance shrinks as the gap between the teams grows and never rises above the stronger side’s chance to win, so it never made a draw its favourite.
Round by round
How often each side's favourite was the result after 90 minutes, in each round.
| Round | Matches | Ours | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Group stage | 72 | 47 | 48 |
| Round of 32 | 16 | 10 | 11 |
| Round of 16 | 8 | 5 | 5 |
| Quarter-finals | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| Semi-finals† | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Third place† | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Final† | 1 | 0 | 0 |
† The market here is the Polymarket exchange’s closing price, and our call the same model rerun with the ratings at kickoff.
Biggest shocks
The results the market gave the lowest chance after 90 minutes, least likely first, with our chance beside it.
- Spain0-0Cape Verde
Group stageMarket 8%Ours 2% 
Ecuador0-0Curaçao
Group stageMarket 11%Ours 3%- Argentina1-1Cape VerdeRound of 32 · a.e.t. 3-2Market 12%Ours 2%
- England0-0Ghana
Group stageMarket 14%Ours 3% 
Qatar1-1Switzerland
Group stageMarket 14%Ours 7%
South Africa1-0South Korea
Group stageMarket 16%Ours 26%
5 of these 6 were level after 90 minutes.
How we scored this
- Every call shown uses only what was known before kickoff. The title odds are replayed from the saved data.
- A data bug had updated some stored calls after their match, with ratings that already included the result, so during the tournament this page overstated our hit rate. It has been corrected: wherever a call was saved, this page uses the last one saved before kickoff.
- 1X2 calls (home win, draw or away win) are graded on the score after 90 minutes, the way the markets settle them. Extra time and penalties count only for who went through.
- No call was saved before the semi-finals, the third-place match and the final. For those four, the market is the Polymarket exchange’s closing price, and ours is the same model rerun with the ratings at kickoff.
- What we would change: give no home bonus at neutral venues, and give draws more weight. The model gave the first-named team a home bonus wherever the match was played.